Southampton have had a perfect festive period so far, winning four in a row to see out 2023, but face a difficult test as they travel to Norwich City on New Years Day.
Russell Martin took a risk in the 2-1 home win over Plymouth on Friday night as he made four changes to the starting 11 that beat Swansea City 5-0 on Boxing Day, changing his entire midfield in the process.
The gamble paid off though, as Southampton were completely dominant and the scoreline was only so close due to goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu being caught on the ball in the 91st minute.
Norwich are having a somewhat indifferent season under David Wagner. The Canaries have lost their last two and are currently 13th in the league. However their lowly position is perhaps a little deceiving, as they are only five points off of 6th.
Martin captained Norwich in his playing career but will put all former loyalties aside as he looks to extend his Southampton side’s unbeaten run to 18 games and pile further pressure on Norwich’s rivals, Ipswich Town, in second.
What team will Russell Martin select against Norwich?
A number of key players were rested from the start for the visit of Plymouth on Friday evening, so it is expected the starting line up against Norwich will resemble a more common Southampton team.
Despite his mistake against Plymouth, Bazunu will continue in goal and it is expected he will see the same back four ahead of him, with Kyle Walker-Peters, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Jan Bednarek and Ryan Manning the likely quartet. Captain Jack Stephens will likely watch on from the bench once more and James Bree is expected to miss this one through the injury he sustained against QPR.
In midfield, Southampton are expected to be without Flynn Downes once again as he missed the Plymouth game entirely with illness. This is concerning for Southampton as Downes has been one of their best performers this season and it is the second time he has missed a game through illness in a matter of weeks which suggests a potential recurring issue.
Daily Echo Southampton reporter Alfie House provided some clarity on the issue on ‘X’ as he explained that there is “No guarantee unwell Flynn Downes is back for the NYD visit to Norwich City. Russell Martin hopes he is but says he won’t risk anything – he will also play no part vs Walsall. Could be two weeks off for the 24yo, who will consult a nutritionist for a longer-term fix”.
Joe Aribo and Stuart Armstrong will both hope to return against Norwich after starting the Plymouth win on the bench. Aribo in particular has taken the opportunity that arose from Downes’ previous absence through illness against Watford before Christmas to show his manager he can be an important player and started five in a row prior to Plymouth. The bad news for Southampton are that his performances have seen him selected in Nigeria’s final 25-man squad for the African Cup of Nations in January; meaning Southampton will have to cope without the ex-Rangers man for up to five weeks.
Given that news, it might be that Martin decides to use Aribo while he still can and return to the duo of Stuart Armstrong and Aribo ahead of Shea Charles if Downes is to be absent. Carlos Alcaraz provided a real moment of quality to open the scoring against Plymouth last time out as he curled a strike into the top corner from 20 yards, as well as linking up well with his teammates from an increasingly rare midfield position. So that Alcaraz, Stuart Armstrong and Aribo can all be accommodated, Alcaraz may be asked to reprise the false nine role he has performed numerous times this season.
If that trio are to start then this will likely mean Che Adams will drop out of the side. The Scotland international did score the second against Plymouth but was wasteful in front of goal earlier in the match and snatched at a couple of chances that he really should have scored from. Adams is also expected to leave the club in January with his contract expiring in the summer so Martin may prefer to start players whose futures are more certain.
Sam Edozie and Adam Armstrong should continue to play on either flank in the 4-3-3 system Martin prefers, the latter having a fine season with 12 goals and nine assists evidencing a drastic improvement from his previous two seasons at the club.
With that in mind, here is how we predict Southampton will line up against Norwich in their first game of 2024:
(4-3-3): Bazunu; Walker-Peters, Harwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Manning; Charles, Aribo, Stuart Armstrong; Adam Armstrong, Alcaraz, Edozie