Recent reports suggesting Russell Martin will lose his job if Southampton fail to get promoted via the play-offs appear well wide of the mark.
According to the Daily Mail, Martin will “likely pay with his job” should his side fall short of a return to the Premier League at the first attempt.
This seem completely contrary to anything that has come out of the club this season, with most supporters feeling ahead of the season that a play-off finish is about right for Southampton.
They do boast one of the strongest squads in the Championship this season, but so do fellow relegated sides Leicester City and Leeds United.
All three clubs cannot be promoted automatically. When you then throw the incredible season of Ipswich Town into the mix, it is difficult to argue that another manager would have done much better in charge of the Saints this season.
With that in mind, here are three reasons that Southampton will not sack Martin if they fail to win the play-offs.
- READ MORE: The eye-watering sum Southampton will earn if they seal Premier League return via play-offs
Southampton need Russell Martin stability
Southampton got through three managers as they finished bottom of the Premier League last season.
They started the season with Ralph Hasenhuttl in charge, the Austrian manager who had overseen the club for almost four years with limited budget prior to being sacked in October 2023.
Then came Nathan Jones, who won just one Premier League game before being sacked in February and replaced by Ruben Selles, who had acted as a coach under both Hasenhuttl and Jones.
With Selles leaving with relegation confirmed, Southampton sought about preparing for the future and ownership group Sport Republic appointed Jason Wilcox – who has since departed for Manchester United – as their sporting director.
Wilcox was the man that identified Martin and appointed the Swansea City manager with the view to the 38-year-old being at the club long-term.
Martin is inexperienced – having only managed for less than five years – but he is ambitious and sticks vehemently to his possession-based principles.
For Southampton to completely overhaul their playing style in the summer after years of counter-attacking football and then throw that all away after just one season of transition would be incredibly short-sighted.
Recent history suggests possession-based style secures Championship promotion
Martin’s philosophy revolves around control through keeping the ball.
The St Mary’s crowd have found this frustrating at times, willing their side to attack more quickly at times, as well as gritting their teeth when they try to pass out from their own box.
This is the way football is going, though, and Southampton are evolving rather than getting left behind.
Ever since Pep Guardiola pitched up at Manchester City in 2016, English football has been undergoing a tactical revolution.
Even throughout the EFL, a long goal-kick is a dying art with almost all teams favouring a five-yard pass inside their own box instead.
There were teething issues with this when Martin first came in, with a goal conceded at home to Ipswich early in the season standing out after Shea Charles lost possession on the edge of his own box.
However, when Southampton get it right and they are in full flow they are a sight to behold as they move the ball from back to front with ease.
4-0 wins over Sheffield Wednesday and Blackburn Rovers, as well as a 5-0 win over Swansea, are examples of how effective Martin’s football can be when it goes right.
Cynics will point to the reverse, citing 5-0 losses to both Sunderland and Leicester City, but recent history suggests possession is the key to getting out of the Championship.
The last three winners of the second tier, Leicester, Burnley and Norwich City, have all favoured a possession-focused approach which would imply that this has become the blueprint for promotion to the Premier League.
Southampton’s record-breaking run of 25 games unbeaten in all competitions between the end of September and start of February should give fans plenty of assurance that they can be successful long-term with this approach.
Martin has helped repair a fractured relationship between players and fans
Whilst Martin may not be everyone’s cup of tea, it is undeniable that he has been a major reason for a much-improved St Mary’s atmosphere this season.
Southampton’s home ground had become a toxic arena over the past few seasons, as the club struggled to stay in the Premier League before eventually succumbing to relegation last year.
The Saints won just two league games at home in the entirety of the 2022/23 season, leaving fans desperately frustrated at what they were seeing.
What Martin has done is get everyone pulling in the same direction.
The Southampton boss has been clear from the outset that he is not going to change his style so it is up to the St Mary’s faithful to get behind the team.
He has given fans numerous memories of winning at home again and his customary fist pumps to the crowd after a win have been a small but significant way of repairing the relationship between fans and the team.
Martin has not got everything right this season and he will be the first to admit that, but it has seen been a very good season and he should be allowed to build on his work next season regardless of promotion.