Southampton find themselves 19th in the Premier League after seven matches, with just one point to show for their efforts.
This season is Russell Martin‘s first as a Premier League manager and it will have been a steep learning curve for the Southampton boss.
After guiding Southampton to promotion via the play-offs last season, it has not taken Martin long to start coming under pressure since the step up to the top flight.
One draw and six defeats are the reason for that and Martin has seen his tactics called into question constantly given the amount of mistakes that have led to goals when playing out from the back.
The Saints face Leicester City at home in the first game back after the international break and that game could be make or break for Martin as manager.
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Southampton should have six Premier League points
Southampton showed a reaction after their worst performance of the season so far against Bournemouth as they battled hard against Arsenal at The Emirates.
Ultimately, the underdogs lost 3-1 but did take a surprise lead and Martin should take plenty of positives from a determined performance against many people’s favourites for the title.
As it is, Southampton’s only point has come against fellow newly-promoted side Ipswich Town when they conceded a 95th-minute equaliser.
Whilst fans are growing increasingly divided over whether Martin is the right man to keep Southampton in the Premier League, new data released by Opta shows that the Saints have actually been very unlucky to take just one point.
Opta have compared each club’s actual points tally to the one they should have according to their expected goals and expected goals against and this data shows that Southampton should actually have six points (6.66).
When compared with other clubs on the same metrics, this would see Martin’s side 16th in the table, suggesting they are not performing as badly as their actual league position suggests.
Southampton should persevere with Russell Martin
This will be encouraging for Martin and shows that Southampton are not far off getting vital points on the board.
The worry, though, is how badly the Saints are underperforming their expected goals and goals conceded.
According to the report published by Opta: “Saints have just one point from their seven games so far, but their performances have been worth over six (6.66) according to expected goals.
“Their negative difference between actual points and expected points (-5.66) is the worst record in the league.”
This shows that Southampton are conceding more goals than they should from the quality of chances they are giving up but, perhaps crucially, failing to convert their own chances.
Given Cameron Archer’s opener against Arsenal was the first league goal scored by one of Southampton’s forwards this season, it is not hard to see that Martin needs his strikers to start pulling their weight.
Martin cannot put the ball in the back of the net himself, but the data suggests he should perhaps be given more time for things to click.